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Original Article
 
Development of an index to predict risk of nursing home placement for home and community-based waiver participants
Sandra L. Spoelstra1, Charles W. Given2
1PhD, RN Michigan State University College of Nursing 1355 Bogue Street, Room C342, East Lansing, MI, USA.
2PhD, Michigan State University, Department of Family Medicine, B106 Clinical Center, East Lansing, MI, USA.

Article ID: 100001A03SS2015
doi:10.5348/A03-2015-1-OA-1

Address correspondence to:
Sandra Lee Spoelstra
Michigan State University College of Human Medicine
1355 Bogue Street, Room 342, East Lansing
MI 48824
USA
Phone: (517) 353-8681

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How to cite this article
Spoelstra SL, Given CW. Development of an index to predict risk of nursing home placement for home and community-based waiver participants. Edorium J Aging Res 2015;1:1–11.


Abstract
Aims: Nursing home placement (NHP) is costly, and the majority of older adults prefer to remain living in the community. The purpose of this research was to examine NHP among a cohort of participants in a home and community-based waiver program during 2002 to 2007 to develop a risk model for predicting who may transition to a nursing home.
Methods: This longitudinal study was conducted on data from the minimum data set-home for care linked with medicaid claim files and death certificates. The sample included 6525 participants who had two assessments and survived through 2007 or had NHP. A risk index was developed to identify participants who had NHP.
Results: Using the risk index, the probability of NHP was 50%, with sensitivity of 0.4 and specificity of 0.9. Forty percent of participants who had NHP were correctly identified.
Conclusion: This NHP risk index may inform waiver agency personnel as to when participants may need more intense interventions, and consequently provide additional care to delay or prevent NHP when possible.

Keywords: Community-based elderly, Dually eligible, Medicare and medicaid, Nursing home placement, Risk index, Waiver program

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Author Contributions:
Sandra L. Spoelstra – Substantial contributions to conception and design, Acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation of data, Drafting the article, Revising it critically for important intellectual content, Final approval of the version to be published
Charles W. Given – Substantial contributions to conception and design, Acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation of data, Drafting the article, Revising it critically for important intellectual content, Final approval of the version to be published
Guarantor of submission
The corresponding author is the guarantor of submission.
Source of support
None
Conflict of interest
Authors declare no conflict of interest.
Copyright
© 2014 Sandra L. Spoelstra et al. This article is distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original author(s) and original publisher are properly credited. Please see the copyright policy on the journal website for more information.



About The Authors

Sandra L. Spoelstra is Assistant Professor at Michigan State University College of Nursing, E. Lansing, MI, US. She earned PhD degree in Nursing from Michigan State University. Her research interests include dissemination and implementation science in vulnerable disparate populations to delay or prevent nursing home placement.



Charles W. Given is Director of the Institute of Health Care Policy at Michigan State University, E. Lansing, MI, US.